Royal chances

One of the thing's that always surprised me is the level of vitriol in comments aimed at Royal, not from the right, but from the left. One only needs to read the comments on major left leaning news sites to see the daily barrage. If I may overuse the Hillary Clinton analogy, she is one of those politicians that seems to inspire either intense like or intense dislike in voters of all party affiliations, with little room in between. That is not to say that she is unelectable. Polling from late 2006 right after her nomination and now in early to mid-2008 confirm that should would run even or ahead of Sarkozy in a presidential runoff. If anything, she could take heart from Sarkozy himself, who, while also one of those politicians that inspires genuine hatred among certain segments of the population, still managed to pull off a handy win last year. And if the current Sarko-malaise ever becomes permanent, as Bush's approval numbers have, any Socialist will come into 2012 with just as significant an advantage as the Democrats this year.

Her challenge will be to both convince the Socialists that they need to continue moving towards the center (the approval of Sarkozy's general reforms despite the personal dislike of the man should be proof enough of this need) and convince the general electorate that she is not as incompetent and incoherent as her last campaign sometimes suggested. As party leader she could succeed or fail on both counts, which is certainly a safer test for the Socialists than waiting till 2012.